Dr.Forest_T5.1

Dr.Forest_Task 5.1: Synthesizing the effects of forest diversity on multiple health risks and benefits.

We will use BBNs to synthesise the relationships between forest biodiversity and various human health risks and benefits. BBNs are probabilistic graphical models that analyze complex systems by accounting for all causal relations among the system’s variables and quantifying those relations through conditional probability distributions (47). BBNs have recently been successfully applied by us to assess the probability of a dilution effect for Lyme borreliosis in Belgian forests. We will build graphical models linking relevant components of biodiversity to the respective human health risks and benefits, defining the probability distributions based on knowledge gained in WPs 1-4. Empirical data of health risks and benefits from WPs 1-4 will be used to validate the BBN model outcomes. The respective human health risks and benefits are midpoint indicators; to better assess forest composition driven trade-offs and synergies between the different risks and benefits we will use DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) as endpoint indicators in BBNs. A sensitivity analysis will be performed to determine the most influential tree diversity related variables which will, in turn, contribute to concrete forest management guidelines for the optimal delivery of multiple human health benefits.

2020-03-23

2020-03-23